With google following apple’s walled garden, and limiting third party app installations, can someone else big (nonprofit like GNU or Linux foundation) fork and maintain android? Reason for choosing someone big is for mass adoption and that google is slowly boiling the pot to see what enshittification it could get away with
Lets ignore the “is it possible” and imagine what would happen if it was. Whatever entity forks AOSP would start off with (next to) no userbase. The platform “Android” will remain Google’s AOSP, including some proprietary components. Whenever Google decides, they can enforce apps on the Google Play Store to use a new version of the Android system API. This is often a breaking change; apps that update won’t work on older Android. There is nothing stopping Google from creating complex breaking changes that tie into their proprietary components, killing off any attempt at running Google Play Store apps on older or “fully FOSS” Android. Even if a hard fork of AOSP existed, it would not remain compatible with the vast majority of applications.
So even if this could happen, it won’t. Nobody is going to invest in hard forking a project that is going to be killed off by Google’s monopoly.
The much better (long term) option is to stay completely outside AOSP, like with mobile Linux distros such as postmarketOS. Right now, it is underdeveloped and not an option as a daily driver for most. But over time, this is the only feasible option that can give control back to the user.
And well never happen. If Linux dies overtake Microsoft on desktop it is not because of user control but the fact Valve has made game playing possible and better on Linux. People well not switch till they have a reason.